Igdir FK
Fatih Karagümrük
The model leans Fatih Karagümrük at 50%. Expected goals: Igdir FK 0.99, Fatih Karagümrük 1.59. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 51%. Igdir FK won 3 of their last 5; Fatih Karagümrük won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Igdir FK | 23% | 4.44 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.64 | – | – | – |
| 2Fatih Karagümrük | 50% | 2.00 | – | – | – |
Pick: Fatih Karagümrük. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.99 – 1.59| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 3.5 | 26% | 74% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 0–112.0%
- 1–111.9%
- 0–29.5%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–07.6%
- 1–07.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 49% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fatih Karagümrük −0.5| Igdir FK line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 15% | 76% |
| -0.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| 0 | 24% | 25% | 51% |
| +0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| +1 | 49% | 24% | 27% |
| +1.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.