Iğdır FK
Manisa Futbol Kulübü
The model leans Iğdır FK at 40%. Expected goals: Iğdır FK 1.58, Manisa Futbol Kulübü 1.25. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%. Iğdır FK won 3 of their last 5; Manisa Futbol Kulübü won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Iğdır FK | 44% | 2.28 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.70 | – | – | – |
| 2Manisa Futbol Kulübü | 29% | 3.44 | – | – | – |
Pick: Iğdır FK. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.58 – 1.25| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.6%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–17.4%
- 2–07.4%
- 1–27.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Iğdır FK −0.5| Iğdır FK line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| -1 | 23% | 22% | 55% |
| -0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| 0 | 45% | 25% | 30% |
| +0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| +1 | 70% | 18% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.