Bursaspor
Igdir FK
The model leans Igdir FK at 74%. Expected goals: Bursaspor 0.05, Igdir FK 2.28. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 96%. Bursaspor won 4 of their last 5; Igdir FK won 3 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bursaspor | 0% | 238.10 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 11% | 9.03 | – | – | – |
| 2Igdir FK | 89% | 1.13 | – | – | – |
Pick: Igdir FK. Calibrated probability 74% (raw model output 89%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 100%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.05 – 2.28| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes4% | No96% |
Most likely scores
- 0–225.3%
- 0–122.2%
- 0–319.2%
- 0–411.0%
- 0–09.7%
- 0–55.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 64%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Igdir FK −2| Bursaspor line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 0% | – | 100% |
| -1 | 0% | 1% | 99% |
| -0.5 | 1% | – | 99% |
| 0 | 1% | 11% | 89% |
| +0.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| +1 | 11% | 23% | 65% |
| +1.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.