Igdir FK
Kayserispor
The model leans Kayserispor at 29%. Expected goals: Igdir FK 1.17, Kayserispor 1.17. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 51%. Igdir FK won 3 of their last 5; Kayserispor won 3 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Igdir FK | 35% | 2.89 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.25 | – | – | – |
| 2Kayserispor | 35% | 2.88 | – | – | – |
Pick: Kayserispor. Calibrated probability 29% (raw model output 35%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 69%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.17 – 1.17| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.2%
- 0–111.3%
- 1–011.3%
- 0–09.7%
- 1–27.7%
- 2–17.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Igdir FK 0| Igdir FK line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 21% | 64% |
| -0.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| 0 | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| +0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| +1 | 64% | 21% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.