Esenler Erokspor
Iğdır FK
The model leans Esenler Erokspor at 54%. Expected goals: Esenler Erokspor 2.09, Iğdır FK 0.96. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 55%. Esenler Erokspor won 0 of their last 5; Iğdır FK won 3 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Esenler Erokspor | 63% | 1.60 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.52 | – | – | – |
| 2Iğdır FK | 15% | 6.50 | – | – | – |
Pick: Esenler Erokspor. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 63%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.09 – 0.96| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 3.5 | 36% | 64% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 2–010.4%
- 1–09.9%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.5%
- 3–07.2%
- 3–16.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Esenler Erokspor −1| Esenler Erokspor line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| -1 | 40% | 24% | 37% |
| -0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| 0 | 63% | 20% | 16% |
| +0.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
| +1 | 84% | 11% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.