Esenler Erokspor
Sariyer
The model leans Esenler Erokspor at 54%. Expected goals: Esenler Erokspor 1.82, Sariyer 0.77. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%. Esenler Erokspor won 0 of their last 5; Sariyer won 3 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Esenler Erokspor | 61% | 1.63 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.10 | – | – | – |
| 2Sariyer | 14% | 7.01 | – | – | – |
Pick: Esenler Erokspor. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 61%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.82 – 0.77| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 3.5 | 26% | 74% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.7%
- 2–012.4%
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.6%
- 3–07.5%
- 0–07.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 48% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Esenler Erokspor −1| Esenler Erokspor line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| -1 | 37% | 26% | 38% |
| -0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| 0 | 62% | 22% | 15% |
| +0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| +1 | 85% | 11% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.