Antalyaspor
Sarıyer
The model leans Antalyaspor at 50%. Expected goals: Antalyaspor 1.42, Sarıyer 0.74. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 59%. Antalyaspor won 2 of their last 4; Sarıyer won 3 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Antalyaspor | 52% | 1.91 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.38 | – | – | – |
| 2Sarıyer | 18% | 5.51 | – | – | – |
Pick: Antalyaspor. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.42 – 0.74| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 2.5 | 37% | 63% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 83% |
| Both teams to score | Yes40% | No60% |
Most likely scores
- 1–016.4%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–011.7%
- 0–011.5%
- 2–18.6%
- 0–18.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 56% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Antalyaspor −0.5| Antalyaspor line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| -1 | 27% | 27% | 47% |
| -0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| 0 | 53% | 27% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 14% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.