Predictions · 1. Lig · outside model coverage

Antalyaspor

23
Lost

Pendikspor

The model leans Antalyaspor at 40%. Expected goals: Antalyaspor 1.23, Pendikspor 0.89. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 57%. Antalyaspor won 2 of their last 4; Pendikspor won 1 of their last 4.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Antalyaspor43%2.33
XDraw32%3.14
2Pendikspor25%3.95

Pick: Antalyaspor. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.23 – 0.89
LineOverUnder
1.563%37%
2.536%64%
3.516%84%
Both teams to scoreYes42%No58%

Most likely scores

  • 1014.8%
  • 1113.1%
  • 0012.0%
  • 0110.7%
  • 209.1%
  • 218.1%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Antalyaspor −0.5
Antalyaspor lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.520%80%
-120%25%56%
-0.544%56%
044%29%27%
+0.573%27%
+173%18%9%
+1.591%9%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.