Sivasspor
Esenler Erokspor
The model leans Esenler Erokspor at 50%. Expected goals: Sivasspor 0.92, Esenler Erokspor 1.53. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 52%. Sivasspor won 0 of their last 3; Esenler Erokspor won 0 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sivasspor | 21% | 4.68 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.54 | – | – | – |
| 2Esenler Erokspor | 50% | 1.98 | – | – | – |
Pick: Esenler Erokspor. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.92 – 1.53| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 3.5 | 23% | 77% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 0–113.2%
- 1–112.1%
- 0–210.1%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–08.7%
- 1–07.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Esenler Erokspor −0.5| Sivasspor line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 15% | 77% |
| -0.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| 0 | 23% | 26% | 52% |
| +0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| +1 | 48% | 25% | 27% |
| +1.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.