Sivasspor
Manisa Futbol Kulübü
The model leans Sivasspor at 36%. Expected goals: Sivasspor 1.24, Manisa Futbol Kulübü 1.12. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 51%. Sivasspor won 0 of their last 3; Manisa Futbol Kulübü won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sivasspor | 38% | 2.65 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.28 | – | – | – |
| 2Manisa Futbol Kulübü | 32% | 3.15 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sivasspor. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.24 – 1.12| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.1%
- 1–011.7%
- 0–110.6%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–18.1%
- 1–27.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sivasspor 0| Sivasspor line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| -1 | 17% | 22% | 61% |
| -0.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| 0 | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| +0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| +1 | 67% | 20% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.