Kayserispor
Sivasspor
The model leans Kayserispor at 44%. Expected goals: Kayserispor 1.27, Sivasspor 0.75. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 61%. Kayserispor won 3 of their last 5; Sivasspor won 0 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Kayserispor | 48% | 2.10 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.15 | – | – | – |
| 2Sivasspor | 21% | 4.82 | – | – | – |
Pick: Kayserispor. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.27 – 0.75| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| 3.5 | 15% | 85% |
| Both teams to score | Yes38% | No62% |
Most likely scores
- 1–016.8%
- 0–013.2%
- 1–112.6%
- 2–010.7%
- 0–19.9%
- 2–18.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Kayserispor −0.5| Kayserispor line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| -1 | 23% | 26% | 51% |
| -0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| 0 | 49% | 29% | 22% |
| +0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| +1 | 78% | 16% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.