Kayserispor
Bursaspor
The model leans Kayserispor at 76%. Expected goals: Kayserispor 2.65, Bursaspor 0.05. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 95%. Kayserispor won 3 of their last 5; Bursaspor won 4 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Kayserispor | 92% | 1.09 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 8% | 12.80 | – | – | – |
| 2Bursaspor | 0% | 357.14 | – | – | – |
Pick: Kayserispor. Calibrated probability 76% (raw model output 92%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 100%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.65 – 0.05| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% |
| Both teams to score | Yes5% | No95% |
Most likely scores
- 2–023.6%
- 3–020.9%
- 1–017.8%
- 4–013.8%
- 5–07.3%
- 0–06.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 40% · BTTS No 64%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Kayserispor −2| Kayserispor line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| -1 | 73% | 19% | 8% |
| -0.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
| 0 | 92% | 8% | 0% |
| +0.5 | 100% | – | 0% |
| +1 | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| +1.5 | 100% | – | 0% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.