Predictions · 1. Lig · outside model coverage

Bodrum FK

02
Lost

Bursaspor

The model leans Bodrum FK at 78%. Expected goals: Bodrum FK 3.30, Bursaspor 0.05. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 95%. Bodrum FK won 0 of their last 5; Bursaspor won 4 of their last 5.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Bodrum FK96%1.05
XDraw4%23.70
2Bursaspor0%714.29

Pick: Bodrum FK. Calibrated probability 78% (raw model output 96%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 100%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 3.30 – 0.05
LineOverUnder
1.585%15%
2.565%35%
3.543%57%
Both teams to scoreYes5%No95%

Most likely scores

  • 3021.2%
  • 2019.2%
  • 4017.5%
  • 1011.6%
  • 5011.5%
  • 606.3%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS No 64%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Bodrum FK −2
Bodrum FK lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.583%17%
-183%13%4%
-0.596%4%
096%4%0%
+0.5100%0%
+1100%0%0%
+1.5100%0%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.