Bodrum FK
Muglaspor
The model leans Bodrum FK at 37%. Expected goals: Bodrum FK 1.30, Muglaspor 1.15. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 51%. Bodrum FK won 0 of their last 5; Muglaspor won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bodrum FK | 39% | 2.60 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.35 | – | – | – |
| 2Muglaspor | 32% | 3.16 | – | – | – |
Pick: Bodrum FK. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.30 – 1.15| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 3.5 | 23% | 77% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.9%
- 1–011.2%
- 0–19.9%
- 0–08.6%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–27.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Bodrum FK 0| Bodrum FK line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 22% | 60% |
| -0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| 0 | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| +0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| +1 | 67% | 20% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.