Predictions · 1. Lig · outside model coverage

Muğlaspor

20
Won

Boluspor

The model leans Muğlaspor at 55%. Expected goals: Muğlaspor 2.07, Boluspor 0.90. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 53%. Muğlaspor won 2 of their last 5; Boluspor won 0 of their last 3.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Muğlaspor64%1.57
XDraw22%4.53
2Boluspor14%6.93

Pick: Muğlaspor. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 64%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.07 – 0.90
LineOverUnder
1.580%20%
2.557%43%
3.535%65%
Both teams to scoreYes52%No48%

Most likely scores

  • 2011.0%
  • 1010.6%
  • 219.9%
  • 119.5%
  • 307.6%
  • 316.8%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 52% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Muğlaspor −1
Muğlaspor lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.540%60%
-140%24%36%
-0.564%36%
064%20%15%
+0.585%15%
+185%10%5%
+1.595%5%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.