Ümraniyespor
Muğlaspor
The model leans Muğlaspor at 50%. Expected goals: Ümraniyespor 0.97, Muğlaspor 1.58. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 50%. Ümraniyespor won 0 of their last 4; Muğlaspor won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Ümraniyespor | 22% | 4.54 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.62 | – | – | – |
| 2Muğlaspor | 50% | 1.99 | – | – | – |
Pick: Muğlaspor. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.97 – 1.58| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 0–112.4%
- 1–112.0%
- 0–29.7%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–07.8%
- 1–07.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Muğlaspor −0.5| Ümraniyespor line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 15% | 77% |
| -0.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| 0 | 23% | 25% | 51% |
| +0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| +1 | 49% | 25% | 27% |
| +1.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.