Ümraniyespor
Esenler Erokspor
The model leans Esenler Erokspor at 50%. Expected goals: Ümraniyespor 1.03, Esenler Erokspor 1.74. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 54%. Ümraniyespor won 0 of their last 4; Esenler Erokspor won 0 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Ümraniyespor | 21% | 4.70 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.87 | – | – | – |
| 2Esenler Erokspor | 53% | 1.89 | – | – | – |
Pick: Esenler Erokspor. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.03 – 1.74| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.2%
- 0–110.8%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–29.5%
- 1–06.4%
- 0–06.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 49% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Esenler Erokspor −0.5| Ümraniyespor line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 14% | 78% |
| -0.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| 0 | 22% | 24% | 54% |
| +0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| +1 | 46% | 24% | 30% |
| +1.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.