Bodrum FK
Esenler Erokspor
The model leans Bodrum FK at 37%. Expected goals: Bodrum FK 1.38, Esenler Erokspor 1.28. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%. Bodrum FK won 0 of their last 5; Esenler Erokspor won 0 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bodrum FK | 38% | 2.61 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.51 | – | – | – |
| 2Esenler Erokspor | 33% | 3.01 | – | – | – |
Pick: Bodrum FK. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.38 – 1.28| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.4%
- 1–09.7%
- 0–18.9%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–27.9%
- 0–07.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 38% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Bodrum FK 0| Bodrum FK line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 21% | 60% |
| -0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| 0 | 40% | 26% | 34% |
| +0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| +1 | 66% | 19% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.