Fatih Karagümrük
Bursaspor
The model leans Fatih Karagümrük at 78%. Expected goals: Fatih Karagümrük 3.60, Bursaspor 0.05. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 95%. Fatih Karagümrük won 2 of their last 5; Bursaspor won 4 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fatih Karagümrük | 97% | 1.03 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 3% | 31.35 | – | – | – |
| 2Bursaspor | 0% | 1000.00 | – | – | – |
Pick: Fatih Karagümrük. Calibrated probability 78% (raw model output 97%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 100%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.60 – 0.05| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 3.5 | 49% | 51% |
| Both teams to score | Yes5% | No95% |
Most likely scores
- 3–020.5%
- 4–018.4%
- 2–017.1%
- 5–013.2%
- 1–09.5%
- 6–07.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS No 64%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fatih Karagümrük −2| Fatih Karagümrük line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
| -1 | 86% | 10% | 3% |
| -0.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
| 0 | 97% | 3% | 0% |
| +0.5 | 100% | – | 0% |
| +1 | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| +1.5 | 100% | – | 0% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.