Fatih Karagümrük
Kayserispor
The model leans Fatih Karagümrük at 50%. Expected goals: Fatih Karagümrük 1.51, Kayserispor 0.78. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 57%. Fatih Karagümrük won 2 of their last 5; Kayserispor won 3 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fatih Karagümrük | 54% | 1.87 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.52 | – | – | – |
| 2Kayserispor | 18% | 5.54 | – | – | – |
Pick: Fatih Karagümrük. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 54%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.51 – 0.78| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes42% | No58% |
Most likely scores
- 1–015.3%
- 1–111.9%
- 2–011.6%
- 0–010.2%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–17.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fatih Karagümrük −0.5| Fatih Karagümrük line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| -1 | 28% | 26% | 45% |
| -0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| 0 | 55% | 26% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 14% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.