Predictions · 1. Lig · outside model coverage

Manisa Futbol Kulübü

41
Won

Van Spor Kulübü

The model leans Manisa Futbol Kulübü at 40%. Expected goals: Manisa Futbol Kulübü 1.48, Van Spor Kulübü 1.18. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%. Manisa Futbol Kulübü won 2 of their last 5; Van Spor Kulübü won 1 of their last 3.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Manisa Futbol Kulübü43%2.33
XDraw28%3.55
2Van Spor Kulübü29%3.46

Pick: Manisa Futbol Kulübü. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.48 – 1.18
LineOverUnder
1.574%26%
2.550%50%
3.528%72%
Both teams to scoreYes54%No46%

Most likely scores

  • 1112.2%
  • 1010.4%
  • 219.0%
  • 018.2%
  • 207.7%
  • 127.2%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 38% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Manisa Futbol Kulübü −0.5
Manisa Futbol Kulübü lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.522%78%
-122%22%56%
-0.544%56%
044%26%30%
+0.570%30%
+170%18%12%
+1.588%12%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.