Roma
Cannes
The model leans Roma at 77%. Expected goals: Roma 3.01, Cannes 0.05. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 95%. Roma won 3 of their last 6; Cannes won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Roma | 94% | 1.06 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 6% | 18.02 | – | – | – |
| 2Cannes | 0% | 526.32 | – | – | – |
Pick: Roma. Calibrated probability 77% (raw model output 94%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 100%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.01 – 0.05| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 3.5 | 36% | 64% |
| Both teams to score | Yes5% | No95% |
Most likely scores
- 3–021.4%
- 2–021.3%
- 4–016.1%
- 1–014.1%
- 5–09.7%
- 6–04.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS No 64%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Roma −2| Roma line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| -1 | 79% | 15% | 6% |
| -0.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
| 0 | 94% | 5% | 0% |
| +0.5 | 100% | – | 0% |
| +1 | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| +1.5 | 100% | – | 0% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.