Predictions · Ligue 3 · outside model coverage

Cannes

20
Lost

Le Puy

The model leans Le Puy at 61%. Expected goals: Cannes 0.05, Le Puy 1.23. Over 2.5 goals 86%, both teams to score 96%. Cannes won 1 of their last 4; Le Puy won 2 of their last 4.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Cannes1%76.92
XDraw30%3.34
2Le Puy69%1.45

Pick: Le Puy. Calibrated probability 61% (raw model output 69%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 99%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 0.05 – 1.23
LineOverUnder
1.537%63%
2.514%86%
3.54%96%
Both teams to scoreYes3%No97%

Most likely scores

  • 0134.2%
  • 0027.9%
  • 0221.0%
  • 038.6%
  • 042.6%
  • 111.7%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 70% · BTTS No 65%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Le Puy −1
Cannes lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.50%100%
-10%1%99%
-0.51%99%
01%30%69%
+0.531%69%
+131%35%34%
+1.566%34%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.