Predictions · Ligue 3 · outside model coverage

Versailles

10
Won

Le Puy

The model leans Versailles at 41%. Expected goals: Versailles 1.39, Le Puy 1.01. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 51%. Versailles won 2 of their last 4; Le Puy won 2 of their last 4.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Versailles44%2.26
XDraw30%3.38
2Le Puy26%3.83

Pick: Versailles. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 74%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.39 – 1.01
LineOverUnder
1.569%31%
2.543%57%
3.522%78%
Both teams to scoreYes48%No52%

Most likely scores

  • 1112.7%
  • 1012.6%
  • 019.2%
  • 009.1%
  • 218.8%
  • 208.8%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 52% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Versailles −0.5
Versailles lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.522%78%
-122%24%54%
-0.546%54%
046%27%27%
+0.573%27%
+173%17%10%
+1.590%10%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.