SC Bastia
Versailles
The model leans Draw at 34%. Expected goals: SC Bastia 0.80, Versailles 0.90. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 66%. SC Bastia won 2 of their last 4; Versailles won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1SC Bastia | 29% | 3.45 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 37% | 2.73 | – | – | – |
| 2Versailles | 34% | 2.91 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 34% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.80 – 0.90| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 2.5 | 24% | 76% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 91% |
| Both teams to score | Yes33% | No67% |
Most likely scores
- 0–018.4%
- 0–116.4%
- 1–014.7%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–27.4%
- 1–25.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 61% · BTTS No 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: SC Bastia 0| SC Bastia line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 21% | 70% |
| -0.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| 0 | 30% | 34% | 36% |
| +0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| +1 | 64% | 23% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.