SC Aubagne Air Bel
SC Bastia
The model leans Draw at 31%. Expected goals: SC Aubagne Air Bel 0.85, SC Bastia 0.91. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 64%. SC Aubagne Air Bel won 1 of their last 3; SC Bastia won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1SC Aubagne Air Bel | 30% | 3.31 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 36% | 2.78 | – | – | – |
| 2SC Bastia | 34% | 2.96 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 31% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.85 – 0.91| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 2.5 | 26% | 74% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 90% |
| Both teams to score | Yes34% | No66% |
Most likely scores
- 0–017.2%
- 0–115.7%
- 1–014.6%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–27.2%
- 2–06.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 60% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: SC Aubagne Air Bel 0| SC Aubagne Air Bel line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 21% | 68% |
| -0.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| 0 | 32% | 33% | 35% |
| +0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| +1 | 65% | 23% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.