Caen
SC Aubagne Air Bel
The model leans Caen at 50%. Expected goals: Caen 1.52, SC Aubagne Air Bel 0.85. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 54%. Caen won 3 of their last 4; SC Aubagne Air Bel won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Caen | 52% | 1.93 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.53 | – | – | – |
| 2SC Aubagne Air Bel | 20% | 5.06 | – | – | – |
Pick: Caen. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.52 – 0.85| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.2%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–010.8%
- 0–09.3%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–17.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 53% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Caen −0.5| Caen line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| -1 | 28% | 26% | 47% |
| -0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| 0 | 53% | 26% | 21% |
| +0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| +1 | 79% | 14% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.