Caen
SC Bastia
The model leans Caen at 37%. Expected goals: Caen 0.92, SC Bastia 0.67. Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 69%. Caen won 3 of their last 4; SC Bastia won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Caen | 38% | 2.61 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.66 | – | – | – |
| 2SC Bastia | 24% | 4.13 | – | – | – |
Pick: Caen. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.92 – 0.67| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 2.5 | 21% | 79% |
| 3.5 | 8% | 92% |
| Both teams to score | Yes29% | No71% |
Most likely scores
- 0–020.4%
- 1–018.7%
- 0–113.7%
- 1–112.6%
- 2–08.6%
- 2–15.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 68% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Caen 0| Caen line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 25% | 60% |
| -0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| 0 | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| +0.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
| +1 | 75% | 18% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.