Espanyol
Real Madrid
The model leans Real Madrid at 53%. Expected goals: Espanyol 0.89, Real Madrid 1.95. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 51%. Espanyol won 2 of their last 6; Real Madrid won 3 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_Spain| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Espanyol | 15% | 6.49 | 7.50 | 13% | +3 |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.28 | 4.60 | 21% | +3 |
| 2Real Madrid | 61% | 1.63 | 1.42 | 67% | −6 |
Pick: Real Madrid. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 61%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.89 – 1.95| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 0–111.4%
- 0–211.1%
- 1–110.1%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–37.2%
- 1–36.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Real Madrid −1| Espanyol line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 5% | – | 95% |
| -1 | 5% | 11% | 84% |
| -0.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| 0 | 16% | 21% | 62% |
| +0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| +1 | 38% | 25% | 38% |
| +1.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.