Predictions · NB I · outside model coverage

Puskas FC Academy

32
Lost

Paksi SE

The model leans Paksi SE at 37%. Expected goals: Puskas FC Academy 1.40, Paksi SE 1.53. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 60%. Puskas FC Academy won 4 of their last 6; Paksi SE won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Puskas FC Academy34%2.96
XDraw27%3.72
2Paksi SE39%2.54

Pick: Paksi SE. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.40 – 1.53
LineOverUnder
1.579%21%
2.556%44%
3.534%66%
Both teams to scoreYes59%No41%

Most likely scores

  • 1111.4%
  • 128.7%
  • 018.2%
  • 218.0%
  • 107.5%
  • 026.2%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Puskas FC Academy 0
Puskas FC Academy lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.516%84%
-116%19%65%
-0.535%65%
035%25%41%
+0.559%41%
+159%21%20%
+1.580%20%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.