Predictions · NB I · outside model coverage

Debrecen

02
Lost

Puskas FC Academy

The model leans Debrecen at 40%. Expected goals: Debrecen 1.38, Puskas FC Academy 1.06. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 50%. Debrecen won 1 of their last 6; Puskas FC Academy won 4 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Debrecen43%2.34
XDraw30%3.39
2Puskas FC Academy28%3.61

Pick: Debrecen. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 72%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.38 – 1.06
LineOverUnder
1.570%30%
2.544%56%
3.523%77%
Both teams to scoreYes49%No51%

Most likely scores

  • 1112.8%
  • 1012.0%
  • 019.3%
  • 218.8%
  • 008.7%
  • 208.3%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Debrecen −0.5
Debrecen lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.521%79%
-121%23%56%
-0.544%56%
044%27%29%
+0.571%29%
+171%18%11%
+1.589%11%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.