Ujpest
Debrecen
The model leans Debrecen at 44%. Expected goals: Ujpest 1.32, Debrecen 1.80. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%. Ujpest won 3 of their last 6; Debrecen won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Ujpest | 27% | 3.68 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.97 | – | – | – |
| 2Debrecen | 48% | 2.10 | – | – | – |
Pick: Debrecen. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.32 – 1.80| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 3.5 | 38% | 62% |
| Both teams to score | Yes61% | No39% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.5%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–18.0%
- 0–27.1%
- 2–16.9%
- 2–26.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Debrecen −0.5| Ujpest line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 16% | 72% |
| -0.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| 0 | 28% | 23% | 49% |
| +0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| +1 | 51% | 22% | 27% |
| +1.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.