Újpest
Vasas Budapest
The model leans Vasas Budapest at 42%. Expected goals: Újpest 1.89, Vasas Budapest 2.23. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 76%. Újpest won 3 of their last 6; Vasas Budapest won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Újpest | 33% | 3.05 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.65 | – | – | – |
| 2Vasas Budapest | 46% | 2.19 | – | – | – |
Pick: Vasas Budapest. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.89 – 2.23| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 92% | 8% |
| 2.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 3.5 | 59% | 41% |
| Both teams to score | Yes76% | No24% |
Most likely scores
- 1–27.6%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–16.8%
- 2–16.5%
- 1–35.7%
- 2–35.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 68% · BTTS Yes 61%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Vasas Budapest −0.5| Újpest line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| -1 | 17% | 16% | 67% |
| -0.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| 0 | 33% | 20% | 46% |
| +0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| +1 | 54% | 19% | 27% |
| +1.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.