Predictions · NB I · outside model coverage

Vasas Budapest

01
Lost

Puskas FC Academy

The model leans Vasas Budapest at 39%. Expected goals: Vasas Budapest 1.71, Puskas FC Academy 1.52. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 65%. Vasas Budapest won 2 of their last 6; Puskas FC Academy won 4 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Vasas Budapest41%2.41
XDraw25%3.96
2Puskas FC Academy33%3.00

Pick: Vasas Budapest. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.71 – 1.52
LineOverUnder
1.583%17%
2.563%37%
3.540%60%
Both teams to scoreYes64%No36%

Most likely scores

  • 1110.3%
  • 218.8%
  • 127.8%
  • 106.8%
  • 226.7%
  • 016.0%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Vasas Budapest 0
Vasas Budapest lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.522%78%
-122%20%58%
-0.542%58%
042%23%34%
+0.566%34%
+166%18%16%
+1.584%16%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.