Predictions · NB I · outside model coverage

Vasas Budapest

50
Lost

Zalaegerszeg

The model leans Zalaegerszeg at 36%. Expected goals: Vasas Budapest 1.64, Zalaegerszeg 1.66. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 66%. Vasas Budapest won 2 of their last 6; Zalaegerszeg won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Vasas Budapest37%2.70
XDraw25%3.99
2Zalaegerszeg38%2.64

Pick: Zalaegerszeg. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.64 – 1.66
LineOverUnder
1.584%16%
2.564%36%
3.542%58%
Both teams to scoreYes65%No35%

Most likely scores

  • 1110.1%
  • 128.3%
  • 218.2%
  • 226.8%
  • 016.1%
  • 106.1%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Vasas Budapest 0
Vasas Budapest lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.519%81%
-119%19%62%
-0.538%62%
038%23%39%
+0.561%39%
+161%19%20%
+1.580%20%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.