Kispest Honvéd
Zalaegerszeg
The model leans Zalaegerszeg at 44%. Expected goals: Kispest Honvéd 0.92, Zalaegerszeg 1.42. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 53%. Kispest Honvéd won 1 of their last 5; Zalaegerszeg won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Kispest Honvéd | 23% | 4.36 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.40 | – | – | – |
| 2Zalaegerszeg | 48% | 2.10 | – | – | – |
Pick: Zalaegerszeg. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.92 – 1.42| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 0–113.7%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–29.8%
- 0–09.6%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–08.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Zalaegerszeg −0.5| Kispest Honvéd line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 16% | 76% |
| -0.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| 0 | 24% | 27% | 49% |
| +0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| +1 | 51% | 25% | 24% |
| +1.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.