Paksi SE
Kispest Honved
The model leans Paksi SE at 51%. Expected goals: Paksi SE 1.96, Kispest Honved 1.09. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 58%. Paksi SE won 2 of their last 6; Kispest Honved won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Paksi SE | 57% | 1.77 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.22 | – | – | – |
| 2Kispest Honved | 20% | 5.08 | – | – | – |
Pick: Paksi SE. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 57%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.96 – 1.09| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 3.5 | 37% | 63% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.2%
- 2–09.1%
- 3–16.5%
- 3–05.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Paksi SE −1| Paksi SE line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| -1 | 34% | 23% | 42% |
| -0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| 0 | 58% | 22% | 21% |
| +0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| +1 | 79% | 13% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.