Nyíregyháza Spartacus FC
Paksi SE
The model leans Paksi SE at 43%. Expected goals: Nyíregyháza Spartacus FC 1.63, Paksi SE 2.03. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 71%. Nyíregyháza Spartacus FC won 2 of their last 6; Paksi SE won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Nyíregyháza Spartacus FC | 30% | 3.30 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.34 | – | – | – |
| 2Paksi SE | 47% | 2.14 | – | – | – |
Pick: Paksi SE. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.63 – 2.03| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 3.5 | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams to score | Yes70% | No30% |
Most likely scores
- 1–28.7%
- 1–18.5%
- 2–27.0%
- 2–16.9%
- 1–35.9%
- 0–25.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Paksi SE −0.5| Nyíregyháza Spartacus FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 16% | 69% |
| -0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| 0 | 31% | 21% | 47% |
| +0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| +1 | 53% | 20% | 27% |
| +1.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.