Paksi SE
Ujpest
The model leans Paksi SE at 50%. Expected goals: Paksi SE 2.26, Ujpest 1.54. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 71%. Paksi SE won 2 of their last 6; Ujpest won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Paksi SE | 53% | 1.88 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.62 | – | – | – |
| 2Ujpest | 25% | 3.97 | – | – | – |
Pick: Paksi SE. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.26 – 1.54| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 3.5 | 52% | 48% |
| Both teams to score | Yes70% | No30% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.8%
- 1–17.8%
- 2–26.8%
- 3–16.6%
- 1–26.0%
- 2–05.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Paksi SE −0.5| Paksi SE line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| -1 | 33% | 21% | 46% |
| -0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| 0 | 54% | 20% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 14% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.