Paksi SE
Ferencvaros
The model leans Ferencvaros at 53%. Expected goals: Paksi SE 1.10, Ferencvaros 2.16. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 60%. Paksi SE won 2 of their last 6; Ferencvaros won 3 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Paksi SE | 17% | 5.72 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.57 | – | – | – |
| 2Ferencvaros | 61% | 1.65 | – | – | – |
Pick: Ferencvaros. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 61%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.10 – 2.16| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 3.5 | 41% | 59% |
| Both teams to score | Yes59% | No41% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.9%
- 1–19.1%
- 0–29.0%
- 0–18.3%
- 1–37.1%
- 0–36.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Ferencvaros −1| Paksi SE line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| -1 | 7% | 12% | 82% |
| -0.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| 0 | 18% | 20% | 62% |
| +0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| +1 | 38% | 23% | 39% |
| +1.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.