Puskás FC Academy
Ferencváros
The model leans Ferencváros at 53%. Expected goals: Puskás FC Academy 0.78, Ferencváros 1.77. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 54%. Puskás FC Academy won 4 of their last 6; Ferencváros won 3 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Puskás FC Academy | 15% | 6.70 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.99 | – | – | – |
| 2Ferencváros | 60% | 1.67 | – | – | – |
Pick: Ferencváros. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 60%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.78 – 1.77| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 0–113.8%
- 0–212.3%
- 1–110.8%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–07.8%
- 0–37.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Ferencváros −1| Puskás FC Academy line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 5% | – | 95% |
| -1 | 5% | 11% | 84% |
| -0.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| 0 | 16% | 23% | 61% |
| +0.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| +1 | 39% | 26% | 35% |
| +1.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.