Predictions · NB I · outside model coverage

Puskás FC Academy

12
Won

Ferencváros

The model leans Ferencváros at 53%. Expected goals: Puskás FC Academy 0.78, Ferencváros 1.77. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 54%. Puskás FC Academy won 4 of their last 6; Ferencváros won 3 of their last 5.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Puskás FC Academy15%6.70
XDraw25%3.99
2Ferencváros60%1.67

Pick: Ferencváros. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 60%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 85%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 0.78 – 1.77
LineOverUnder
1.572%28%
2.547%53%
3.525%75%
Both teams to scoreYes45%No55%

Most likely scores

  • 0113.8%
  • 0212.3%
  • 1110.8%
  • 129.5%
  • 007.8%
  • 037.3%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Ferencváros −1
Puskás FC Academy lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.55%95%
-15%11%84%
-0.516%84%
016%23%61%
+0.539%61%
+139%26%35%
+1.565%35%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.