Predictions · NB I · outside model coverage

Nyiregyhaza Spartacus FC

21
Won

Kisvarda

The model leans Nyiregyhaza Spartacus FC at 40%. Expected goals: Nyiregyhaza Spartacus FC 1.48, Kisvarda 1.14. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%. Nyiregyhaza Spartacus FC won 2 of their last 6; Kisvarda won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Nyiregyhaza Spartacus FC44%2.28
XDraw28%3.54
2Kisvarda28%3.58

Pick: Nyiregyhaza Spartacus FC. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 72%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.48 – 1.14
LineOverUnder
1.574%26%
2.549%51%
3.527%73%
Both teams to scoreYes53%No47%

Most likely scores

  • 1112.3%
  • 1010.8%
  • 219.1%
  • 018.3%
  • 208.0%
  • 007.3%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 46% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Nyiregyhaza Spartacus FC −0.5
Nyiregyhaza Spartacus FC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.522%78%
-122%23%55%
-0.545%55%
045%26%29%
+0.571%29%
+171%18%12%
+1.588%12%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.