Kisvarda
Debrecen
The model leans Debrecen at 46%. Expected goals: Kisvarda 0.90, Debrecen 1.43. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 54%. Kisvarda won 1 of their last 6; Debrecen won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Kisvarda | 22% | 4.49 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.40 | – | – | – |
| 2Debrecen | 48% | 2.07 | – | – | – |
Pick: Debrecen. Calibrated probability 46% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.90 – 1.43| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 0–114.0%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–210.0%
- 0–09.7%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–08.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Debrecen −0.5| Kisvarda line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 16% | 76% |
| -0.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| 0 | 24% | 27% | 50% |
| +0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| +1 | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| +1.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.