Kispest Honved
MTK Budapest
The model leans MTK Budapest at 38%. Expected goals: Kispest Honved 1.37, MTK Budapest 1.55. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 60%. Kispest Honved won 1 of their last 5; MTK Budapest won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Kispest Honved | 32% | 3.08 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.72 | – | – | – |
| 2MTK Budapest | 41% | 2.46 | – | – | – |
Pick: MTK Budapest. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.37 – 1.55| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 3.5 | 34% | 66% |
| Both teams to score | Yes59% | No41% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.4%
- 1–28.9%
- 0–18.4%
- 2–17.8%
- 1–07.4%
- 0–26.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Kispest Honved 0| Kispest Honved line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 19% | 66% |
| -0.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| 0 | 34% | 25% | 42% |
| +0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| +1 | 58% | 21% | 21% |
| +1.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.