Kispest Honved
Vasas Budapest
The model leans Vasas Budapest at 50%. Expected goals: Kispest Honved 1.34, Vasas Budapest 1.94. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 64%. Kispest Honved won 1 of their last 5; Vasas Budapest won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Kispest Honved | 26% | 3.91 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.16 | – | – | – |
| 2Vasas Budapest | 50% | 1.98 | – | – | – |
Pick: Vasas Budapest. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.34 – 1.94| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 42% | 58% |
| Both teams to score | Yes63% | No37% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.8%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–17.3%
- 0–27.1%
- 2–16.6%
- 2–26.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Vasas Budapest −0.5| Kispest Honved line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 15% | 73% |
| -0.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| 0 | 27% | 22% | 51% |
| +0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| +1 | 49% | 22% | 30% |
| +1.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.