Spartak Moscow
Rubin Kazan
The model leans Spartak Moscow at 40%. Expected goals: Spartak Moscow 1.10, Rubin Kazan 0.71. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 65%. Spartak Moscow won 3 of their last 6; Rubin Kazan won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Spartak Moscow | 43% | 2.30 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 34% | 2.91 | – | – | – |
| 2Rubin Kazan | 22% | 4.50 | – | – | – |
Pick: Spartak Moscow. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.10 – 0.71| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 2.5 | 27% | 73% |
| 3.5 | 11% | 89% |
| Both teams to score | Yes34% | No66% |
Most likely scores
- 1–018.0%
- 0–016.3%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–111.6%
- 2–09.9%
- 2–17.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Spartak Moscow −0.5| Spartak Moscow line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 26% | 55% |
| -0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| 0 | 45% | 32% | 23% |
| +0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| +1 | 77% | 17% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.