Watford
Preston North End
The model leans Watford at 39%. Expected goals: Watford 1.35, Preston North End 1.08. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 50%. Watford won 1 of their last 6; Preston North End won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Watford | 42% | 2.41 | 2.01 | 46% | −5 |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.36 | 3.40 | 27% | +2 |
| 2Preston North End | 29% | 3.49 | 3.50 | 27% | +2 |
Pick: Watford. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Raw model output and calibrated probability are different things: the raw figure is what the model produced, the calibrated one is what past results say that raw figure has actually delivered. Calibration curve: all, 8,453 matches, fitted Sep 7. Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.35 – 1.08 · derived from expected goals| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 3.5 | 23% | 77% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 1–112.8%15.4%
- 1–011.9%9.1%
- 0–19.5%–
- 0–08.8%9.1%
- 2–18.7%8.3%
- 2–08.0%10.0%
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
stored: Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Watford 0| Watford line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 23% | 57% |
| -0.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| 0 | 43% | 27% | 30% |
| +0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| +1 | 70% | 18% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Watford -0.5 | 43% | 2.33 | 2.05 | 47% | −4 |
| Asian handicap | Preston North End +0.5 | 57% | 1.75 | 1.80 | 53% | +4 |
| Draw no bet | Watford | 59% | 1.69 | 1.44 | 65% | −5 |
| Draw no bet | Preston North End | 41% | 2.45 | 2.63 | 35% | +5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.05 | 1.73 | 54% | −5 |
| Both teams to score | No | 51% | 1.96 | 2.00 | 46% | +5 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.