Southampton
Swansea City
The model leans Southampton at 48%. Expected goals: Southampton 1.77, Swansea City 1.10. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 56%. Southampton won 3 of their last 6; Swansea City won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Southampton | 52% | 1.93 | 1.81 | 51% | +1 |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.90 | 3.80 | 24% | +1 |
| 2Swansea City | 23% | 4.43 | 3.80 | 24% | −2 |
Pick: Southampton. Calibrated probability 48% (raw model output 52%). Raw model output and calibrated probability are different things: the raw figure is what the model produced, the calibrated one is what past results say that raw figure has actually delivered. Calibration curve: all, 8,453 matches, fitted Sep 7. Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.77 – 1.10 · derived from expected goals| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 1–111.1%14.3%
- 1–010.0%7.7%
- 2–19.8%7.7%
- 2–08.9%10.5%
- 0–16.3%–
- 1–26.1%–
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
stored: Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Southampton −0.5| Southampton line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| -1 | 29% | 24% | 47% |
| -0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| 0 | 53% | 23% | 24% |
| +0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| +1 | 76% | 15% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Southampton -0.5 | 53% | 1.89 | 1.88 | 51% | +2 |
| Asian handicap | Swansea City +0.5 | 47% | 2.12 | 1.98 | 49% | −2 |
| Draw no bet | Southampton | 70% | 1.44 | 1.40 | 66% | +3 |
| Draw no bet | Swansea City | 30% | 3.29 | 2.75 | 34% | −3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.81 | 1.67 | 56% | 0 |
| Both teams to score | No | 45% | 2.24 | 2.10 | 44% | 0 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.