Burnley
Middlesbrough
The model leans Burnley at 41%. Expected goals: Burnley 1.58, Middlesbrough 1.19. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%. Burnley won 0 of their last 6; Middlesbrough won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Burnley | 45% | 2.22 | 2.65 | 35% | +10 |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.67 | 3.40 | 27% | 0 |
| 2Middlesbrough | 28% | 3.62 | 2.45 | 38% | −10 |
Pick: Burnley. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.58 – 1.19| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.8%
- 1–09.9%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–07.8%
- 0–17.5%
- 1–27.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 49% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Burnley −0.5| Burnley line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 23% | 54% |
| -0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| 0 | 46% | 25% | 29% |
| +0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| +1 | 71% | 17% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.