Birmingham City
Southampton
The model leans Southampton at 43%. Expected goals: Birmingham City 1.10, Southampton 1.54. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%. Birmingham City won 1 of their last 4; Southampton won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Birmingham City | 26% | 3.85 | 2.57 | 36% | −10 |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.60 | 3.30 | 28% | 0 |
| 2Southampton | 46% | 2.16 | 2.50 | 37% | +10 |
Pick: Southampton. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.10 – 1.54| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.1%
- 0–110.9%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–28.4%
- 1–07.8%
- 0–07.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 41% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Southampton −0.5| Birmingham City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 17% | 73% |
| -0.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| 0 | 27% | 25% | 47% |
| +0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| +1 | 53% | 23% | 24% |
| +1.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.